Assessing and Managing Fiscal Risks (AMFR) for Governments Event, 02.Jun.2025

Course Description

This intensive 5-day course equips government officials with essential skills to identify, assess, and manage fiscal risks. Participants will explore key sources of fiscal risks, learn analytical techniques, and develop strategies for effective risk mitigation. The course combines theoretical knowledge with practical applications, preparing officials to enhance their government's fiscal resilience.

Learning Objectives

• Identify and categorize major sources of fiscal risks facing governments
• Apply quantitative techniques to assess and prioritize fiscal risks
• Develop effective strategies for mitigating and managing various fiscal risks
• Understand best practices in fiscal risk disclosure and reporting
• Analyze the impact of fiscal risks on government finances and develop appropriate responses

Course Modules

Day 1: Introduction to Fiscal Risks

• Defining fiscal risks and their importance
• Overview of major categories of fiscal risks
• Institutional framework for fiscal risk management
• Case studies of fiscal risk materialization

Day 2: Macroeconomic Risks and Scenario Analysis

• Identifying macroeconomic risk factors
• Techniques for macroeconomic forecasting and sensitivity analysis
• Scenario building and stress testing
• Developing fiscal buffers and contingency plans

Day 3: Specific Fiscal Risks - Part I

• Analyzing risks from government guarantees and loans
• Assessing contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises
• Public-private partnerships (PPPs) and associated risks
• Natural disasters and climate-related fiscal risks

Day 4: Specific Fiscal Risks - Part II

• Financial sector risks and their fiscal implications
• Subnational government risks
• Long-term fiscal sustainability and demographic changes
• Debt portfolio risks and debt sustainability analysis

Day 5: Risk Mitigation, Reporting, and Governance

• Strategies for fiscal risk mitigation
• Developing a fiscal risk statement
• Best practices in fiscal risk disclosure
• Institutional arrangements for effective risk management

Practical Wins for Participants

• Ability to conduct comprehensive fiscal risk assessments for their respective governments
• Skills to develop and implement a fiscal risk management framework
• Capacity to prepare clear and informative fiscal risk reports
• Enhanced decision-making abilities in fiscal policy and risk management